A-Roid Surgery - The Fantasy Impact
Neil H commented to me the other day that he thought A-Rod was a good pick in the 3rd round but now he has opted for the operation he is less inclined to take him til late. I have to admit that with the best case scenario seeing him missing four weeks of the season and a more conservative estimate of six-eight weeks and the chances of him making it through the season without a breakdown at 85-90% then I'm just not feeling him.
There is no way he survives until the mid-rounds but if he did I'm probably first looking at him around the 8th round which is just stunning in my mind. I am in four leagues of which only two are live drafts (one in a dynasty and the other a keeper - both of which A-Rod is obviously taken) but then there is the BaseballFan.co.uk Division 1 and the Cider for Toddlers league.
The former is a standard 5x5 roto league with 14 players. The latter is slightly more specialised - which doesn't surprise me considering who the commish is (no offence Pete) and this is a 5x5 h2h league with RF/CF/LF instead of three generic OF spots and ten spots for pitching (5 SP and 5 RP). In both of those leagues I'm sitting here knowing that Roidy will go in the first two rounds - I'll be stunned if he doesn't.
Obviously it has a much bigger impact on the real world of the New York Yankees as now instead of protecting Tex in the clean-up spot - A-Rod will spend the first month plus of the season in Colorado in rehab. The line-up with A-Rod in and Cano/Matsui/Posada in 5-7 is much longer than with those guys in 4-6 in whatever order.
I had A-Rod penned in as having a monster season but now I think the #1 player offensively this year will be Josh Hamilton. Sadly you still can't take him til the middle of round one but if I'm in any league drafting 5th or lower - he's my man. Behind Hanley, Pujols, Reyes, D. Wright in whatever order Hamilton will just flat out rake. When you consider he's still learning and did what he did last year based on pure talent then you have to be scared about what he might do in the next few years.