Monday, 9 March 2009

A-Roid Surgery - The Fantasy Impact

So the big debate in fantasy land was who was the #1 overall pick in standard 5x5 roto leagues. The three options seemed to be Albert Pujols, Hanley Ramirez and Alex Rodriguez. The injury to A-Rod has meant that there is little doubt he'll fall in leagues where everyone in drafting no (those where someone is pre-ranking will surely see him go far too early).

Neil H commented to me the other day that he thought A-Rod was a good pick in the 3rd round but now he has opted for the operation he is less inclined to take him til late. I have to admit that with the best case scenario seeing him missing four weeks of the season and a more conservative estimate of six-eight weeks and the chances of him making it through the season without a breakdown at 85-90% then I'm just not feeling him.

There is no way he survives until the mid-rounds but if he did I'm probably first looking at him around the 8th round which is just stunning in my mind. I am in four leagues of which only two are live drafts (one in a dynasty and the other a keeper - both of which A-Rod is obviously taken) but then there is the Division 1 and the Cider for Toddlers league.

The former is a standard 5x5 roto league with 14 players. The latter is slightly more specialised - which doesn't surprise me considering who the commish is (no offence Pete) and this is a 5x5 h2h league with RF/CF/LF instead of three generic OF spots and ten spots for pitching (5 SP and 5 RP). In both of those leagues I'm sitting here knowing that Roidy will go in the first two rounds - I'll be stunned if he doesn't.

Obviously it has a much bigger impact on the real world of the New York Yankees as now instead of protecting Tex in the clean-up spot - A-Rod will spend the first month plus of the season in Colorado in rehab. The line-up with A-Rod in and Cano/Matsui/Posada in 5-7 is much longer than with those guys in 4-6 in whatever order.

I had A-Rod penned in as having a monster season but now I think the #1 player offensively this year will be Josh Hamilton. Sadly you still can't take him til the middle of round one but if I'm in any league drafting 5th or lower - he's my man. Behind Hanley, Pujols, Reyes, D. Wright in whatever order Hamilton will just flat out rake. When you consider he's still learning and did what he did last year based on pure talent then you have to be scared about what he might do in the next few years.


Blogger Peter said...

The thing about A-Rod is that he is too good for someone not to have a punt that he may only miss a month. With the expectation that he will play this year someone will pick him up and it will be more about not being able to say no than snapping him up as soon as your turn comes around.

P.S. I'll tell you who I rate as my third and fourth picks behind Hanley and Albert at the draft ;)

P.P.S. Specialist 5x5 league is damned right. Most fantasy leagues are far too easy :)

11 March 2009 at 10:08  
Blogger Neil Monnery said...

I know someone will take a punt - I just doubt it'll be me!

I have no problem in naming my top five because I don't think any of them fall so I'm not giving any added insight. Only Hamilton can fall beyond five and if he does - I hope I'm there to sweep him up!

11 March 2009 at 11:36  
Blogger signals3_t5 said...

I think the #1 player offensively this year will be Josh Hamilton
I Thinks A-Rod Is Really Good .

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4 August 2009 at 19:27  

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